GuideWhat is a prediction market?
A market in contracts on a future outcome, where the price is the chance.
The short answer
A prediction market is a market in contracts on a future outcome: who wins a match, where Bitcoin is on Friday, what the Fed decides. Each contract pays $1 if its side happens and nothing if it doesn't.
So its price, anywhere between 0 and $1, reads as the chance the market gives that outcome. A contract trading at 62¢ is the market saying 62%.
How a contract pays
Say a market asks whether Arsenal beat Chelsea, and Yes trades at 40¢. Ten dollars buys 25 contracts. If Arsenal win, each settles at $1 and you get $25 back. If they don't, the contracts settle at $0.
The No side is the mirror image: it pays $1 if Arsenal don't win, and its price is roughly $1 minus the Yes price.
Who sets the price
Buyers and sellers do, in an order book. Every price is an offer someone has made: to sell Yes at 41¢, to buy it at 39¢. A trade happens where they meet.
That is the difference from a sportsbook, which sets its own odds and takes the other side of every bet. In a prediction market the other side is another trader, and you can be the one quoting the price by resting a limit order.
Getting out before it settles
You don't have to wait for the result. Any time the book has a buyer, you can sell your contracts at the live price. If Yes was 40¢ when you bought and 55¢ when you sell, you get 55¢ a contract back.
How a market settles
Each market states its terms when it is listed: the source of the result (an official final score, a price feed at a stated moment, a published figure) and what happens in unusual cases such as a draw or a cancellation.
On Hyperliquid, settlement is on-chain in USDC: the winning side is paid straight to its holders' accounts. Some templates settle a fraction instead of all or nothing; a two-sided sports market pays both sides half on a draw.
Prediction market or sportsbook
- The price: from an order book of other traders, not set by a bookmaker.
- The other side: another trader, not the house.
- Getting out: sell at the book's price whenever it has a bid, rather than take a cash-out offer the house sets.
- Settlement: on the terms written on the market, paid on-chain.
Where betondit fits
betondit is a prediction market on Hyperliquid: sports, crypto, macro and politics markets listed by HIP-4 venues, traded from your own Hyperliquid account and settled in USDC. It never holds your funds. It is not available in the United States.